This week we broke below the February low and have entered a confirmed down trend. We’ll discuss defense in difficult markets, the damage on the charts and disciplined approaches to distinguishing counter trend rallies from market bottoms.
In this week’s video we’ll review a checklist for a market bottom and look for signs of bottoming or breaking down. We’ll look to the 2011 correction for striking similarities and clues about the late 2018 correction.
This week’s news offered headlines and head fakes that left investors disappointed and frightened and the S&P down over 4% for the week. In difficult markets, we need to make investment decisions based on reliable signals vs. anticipating outcomes. We’ll look at the yield curve, the correction and the market’s bottom line.
After another volatile week, we’ll look at a pattern forming on the charts that offers clues to the potential direction of the market. We’ll also explore the fractal aspect to this pattern on several time scales.
Last week we saw to significant drops in the market driven by algorithms after we dropped below key technical levels. Algorithms using technical analysis drive most of the short term trading volume in the markets now, but they don’t do well at identifying when human sentiment will turn. Everyday market participants tell themselves stories to explain the past and their future expectations. This week we’ll look at how these stories create changes in sentiment to answer the question did we just scare up a rally and more important will it last.
The Fed and Trump are stepping on the economic brakes with one foot with the other foot on the gas of supply side economic policy. We’re seeing smoke from this friction in the stock market. Something is going to give way. Soon the trend will falter under the combined weight of a trade war and rising rates or we’ll turn away from policies that are dragging down the economy.
There’s a saying that the market takes the stairs up and the elevator down. Last year felt like an escalator and this year we’ve taken the elevator down twice. This week we’ll look at the mechanics of downside momentum, the health of the long term trend, the bounce and where we might go from here.
In last week’s video we discussed the potential for short term volatility and examined the long term trend. The market is in a bit of an air pocket as we wait for the start of earnings season with little to focus on other than rising rates. In this video, we’ll take another look at a likely path for the markets in the short term and take another look at the long-term trend. We’ll also answer the question, Will Rising Rates Sink the Stock Market?
In this week’s video we’ll look at the road map to 3,000 in the S&P and 300 in the SPY ETF, along with peaks and potholes that mark the way. In particular we’re going to look at whether slowing momentum is signaling a market peak. We’ll take a trip back to 1954 to compare a similar peak in momentum to today.
In this week’s video with Facebook’s crash, we’ll look at whether the tech sector is about to correct or crash the market. We’ll also look across sectors at sector rotation, selection and strength. We’ll close with a look at the broader market, the evidence on the charts and some words of wisdom on long term investing.