September is seasonally a weak month for the S&P 500. With trade and emerging market concerns weighing on the market, the media is asking if we could be in for a September Swoon. To answer the question, we’ll look at seasonality, near term weakness and the long term charts.
Blog
Seeds of Recession – Is Winter Coming?
With the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all hitting new highs, the media loves to ask if winter is coming. We’ll look at three frequently discussed topics: recession, peak economic strength and the potential for an inverted yield curve. We’ll close with a look at the strength of the market trend.
Selecting Winners Using Relative Strength
This week the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 reached new highs. With the resumption of the bullish trend, we’ll look at the best performing sectors and how to select winners using relative strength. Since this week marks the official breakout from the 2018 correction, a table listing the characteristics of all corrections in the S&P 500 going back to 1936 is also included. We close with a look at the new highs in the S&P 500 and the long term trend.
Turkish Contagion or Turkish Delight? Learning When to Sit Tight
This week the headlines were dominated by fears of emerging markets contagion from Turkey’s currency crisis and an economic slow down in China. While this is never a delight, we’ll learn about ways to determine when to sit tight and when to shift to defensive assets. Along the way we’ll review the health of the markets.
Afraid of Heights and New Highs?
In this week’s video we’ll look at fear of heights and new highs. As the market hovers near highs, we’ll look at the implications of new highs for trend following and bust the myth of an aging bull market.
The Open Road, Peaks and Potholes
In this week’s video we’ll look at the road map to 3,000 in the S&P and 300 in the SPY ETF, along with peaks and potholes that mark the way. In particular we’re going to look at whether slowing momentum is signaling a market peak. We’ll take a trip back to 1954 to compare a similar peak in momentum to today.
Is the Market About to do a Facebook Faceplant?
In this week’s video with Facebook’s crash, we’ll look at whether the tech sector is about to correct or crash the market. We’ll also look across sectors at sector rotation, selection and strength. We’ll close with a look at the broader market, the evidence on the charts and some words of wisdom on long term investing.
Is the Market Climbing a Wall of Worry?
In this week’s video we’ll look at how the market climbs a wall of worry and the importance of staying focused on the evidence in the charts to achieve long term gains. We’ll at how worry drives trends, how human behavior leads to market tops and bottoms and we’ll close with a look at interim price targets based on the charts.
Will the Global Trade War Pop a Bubble or Extend a Range?
Are we in a bubble that will be popped by the Global Trade War or is it extending a range? Headlines move the market day to day, but what is the measure of the market? A stronger market is more resilient than a vulnerable market. In this video, we’ll look at the shift in patterns in the market and what they tell us about the market’s health and long term investment outcomes.
Ready for High Noon in the Global Trade War?
As we approach a showdown in the Global Trade War, we have to ask ourselves are we focused on High Noon or are we long term investors? We’ll distinguish between Buy and Hold vs. Long Term Trend Following and look at what the charts are telling us about our investment prospects.