Blog

Shocktober: Scaring Up a Rally?

Last week we saw to significant drops in the market driven by algorithms after we dropped below key technical levels.  Algorithms using technical analysis drive most of the short term trading volume in the markets now, but they don’t do well at identifying when human sentiment will turn.  Everyday market participants tell themselves stories to explain the past and their future expectations.  This week we’ll look at how these stories create changes in sentiment to answer the question did we just scare up a rally and more important will it last.

Tipping Point or Turning Point?

The Fed and Trump are stepping on the economic brakes with one foot with the other foot on the gas of supply side economic policy.  We’re seeing smoke from this friction in the stock market.  Something is going to give way.  Soon the trend will falter under the combined weight of a trade war and rising rates or we’ll turn away from policies that are dragging down the economy.

Breakdown, Bounce or Bouncing Around?

There’s a saying that the market takes the stairs up and the elevator down.  Last year felt like an escalator and this year we’ve taken the elevator down twice.   This week we’ll look at the mechanics of downside momentum, the health of the long term trend, the bounce and where we might go from here.

Will Rising Rates Sink the Stock Market?

In last week’s video we discussed the potential for short term volatility and examined the long term trend.  The market is in a bit of an air pocket as we wait for the start of earnings season with little to focus on other than rising rates.  In this video, we’ll take another look at a likely path for the markets in the short term and take another look at the long-term trend.  We’ll also answer the question, Will Rising Rates Sink the Stock Market?

September Swoon?

September is seasonally a weak month for the S&P 500.  With trade and emerging market concerns weighing on the market, the media is asking if we could be in for a September Swoon.  To answer the question, we’ll look at seasonality, near term weakness and the long term charts.

Seeds of Recession – Is Winter Coming?

With the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all hitting new highs, the media loves to ask if winter is coming. We’ll look at three frequently discussed topics: recession, peak economic strength and the potential for an inverted yield curve. We’ll close with a look at the strength of the market trend.